Jim Thome, Three True Outcomes King

Last night Jim Thome, recently acquired by Baltimore, made history, breaking a record previously held by Barry Bonds. Before that this record belonged to Reggie Jackson, and before that, to Babe Ruth. That is impressive company for any man to keep, yet no one seems to have noticed this momentous occasion. Perhaps that's because it happened after most of the country was in bed, or perhaps (and more likely) it's because no one but me was paying any attention to this particular bit of baseball history. But whether anyone but me knew it or not, Jim Thome became baseball's all-time "three true outcomes" leader.

The three true outcomes for any plate appearance are the strikeout, the walk, and the home run. They are the possible outcomes that involve only the hitter and pitcher (give or take a catcher to throw the ball back). The term was coined during the 1980s in reference to seemingly every appearance by Rob Deer going one of those three ways.

Thome has also had a knack for all three of the outcomes during his career, he is currently 2nd all-time in strikeouts, 7th in walks, and tied for 7th in home runs. Add his totals up, and as I said, he is #1. Here is a list of the top twenty three true outcomes (TTO) players in baseball history (all numbers are through July 5, 2012):

	Player	SO	BB	HR	TTO	PA	TTO%
1	Jim Thome*	2516	1735	609	4860	10219	47.56
2	Barry Bonds	1539	2558	762	4859	12606	38.55
3	Reggie Jackson	2597	1375	563	4535	11418	39.72
4	Rickey Henderson	1694	2190	297	4181	13348	31.33
5	Babe Ruth	1330	2062	714	4106	10620	38.66
6	Mickey Mantle	1710	1733	536	3979	9907	40.16
7	Mike Schmidt	1883	1507	548	3938	10062	39.14
8	Sammy Sosa	2306	929	609	3844	9896	38.84
9	Alex Rodriguez	1990	1202	642	3834	10968	34.96
10	Harmon Killebrew	1699	1559	573	3831	9833	38.96
11	Ken Griffey Jr.	1779	1312	630	3721	11304	32.92
12	Manny Ramirez	1813	1329	555	3697	9774	37.82
13	Carl Yastrzemski	1393	1845	452	3690	13992	26.37
14	Fred McGriff	1882	1305	493	3680	10174	36.17
15	Willie Mays	1526	1464	660	3650	12496	29.21
16	Frank Thomas	1397	1667	521	3585	10075	35.58
17	Hank Aaron	1383	1402	755	3540	13941	25.39
18	Bobby Abreu	1806	1445	286	3537	9861	35.87
19	Frank Robinson	1532	1420	586	3538	11742	30.13
20	Mark McGwire	1596	1317	583	3496	7660	45.64

Just missing that list is a man who will likely force his way on before the end of July, Adam Dunn, who is currently at 3457 TTO and collecting all three components at a very high clip this season. He could move as high as 16th before the end of the season and could very well break the record himself one day. The last column in the above chart represents the percent of each player's career plate appearances that ended in one of the TTO. These 20 players averaged close to 11,000 PA, which is a very high number, and you'll notice that their TTO% range from Thome's 47.56 down to Aaron's 25.39. There's something to be said for compiling big numbers, and all 20 players here are among the best hitters in history, but there's also something to be said for tallying numbers at a high rate, even if you don't play as long. So, here are the 20 highest TTO% in history (minimum of 3,000 career PA):

	Player	SO	BB	HR	TTO	PA	TTO%
1	Russell Branyan	1118	403	194	1715	3398	50.47
2	Adam Dunn	1936	1131	390	3457	6912	50.01
3	Mark Reynolds	1032	366	165	1563	3130	49.94
4	Rob Deer	1409	575	230	2214	4513	49.06
5	Jim Thome	2516	1735	609	4860	10219	47.56
6	Ryan Howard	1207	540	286	2033	4409	46.11
7	Carlos Pena	1396	737	271	2404	5255	45.75
8	Mark McGwire	1596	1317	583	3496	7660	45.64
9	Mickey Tettleton	1307	949	245	2501	5745	43.53
10	Pat Burrell	1564	932	292	2788	6520	42.76
11	Jay Buhner	1406	792	310	2508	5927	42.31
12	Gorman Thomas	1339	697	268	2304	5486	42.00
13	Brad Wilkerson	947	492	122	1561	3753	41.59
14	Danny Tartabull	1362	768	262	2392	5842	40.94
15	Don Lock	776	373	122	1271	3116	40.79
16	Jose Canseco	1942	906	462	3310	8129	40.72
17	Jayson Werth	908	449	143	1500	3701	40.53
18	Mickey Mantle	1710	1733	536	3979	9907	40.16
19	Troy Glaus	1377	854	320	2551	6355	40.14
20	Brad Hawpe	796	425	124	1345	3369	39.92

These are perhaps the truest TTO players, and you can see that both Thome and Dunn are among the very greatest. Dunn or Mark Reynolds could each pass Branyan's percentage someday. Only three of these 20 players began their career before the last 30 years (Mantle, Lock, and Thomas), so clearly TTO have climbed and climbed in frequency, and both of these lists are likely to see many changes over the next decade.

Today though, let us celebrate Jim Thome. Long live the king.